Prime Time Replay:


Ian Hayes on
The Year 2000 Software Crisis



MsgId: *emedia(2)
Date: Mon Apr 7 21:06:31 PDT 1997
From: OMNI_Moderator At: 204.30.67.130

Good evening, Ian. And welcome, audience, to another E-Media show. Tonight's guest is Ian S. Hayes, co-author of "The Year 2000: The Software Crisis", which describes how the year 2000 will affect computer systems in a way devastating to both programs and people--unless companies find ways to solve the impending problem first.

Ian, my computer is running a little slow tonight, so if you'll bear with me.... First, explain who you are, what "Year 2000" is about, and why you decided to write about the software challenge ahead.

MsgId: *emedia(4)
Date: Mon Apr 7 21:12:17 PDT 1997
From: Ian_Hayes At: 207.172.31.135

I'm a management consultant and I specialize in working with large-scale information technology organizations, such as those found in banks, insurance companies, and large manufacturing organizations. I also work with a lot of consulting companies and software vendors who specialize in the Year 2000 market. So that explains who I am. Now, how did I get in this business? I got in this business basically because my clients pulled me into it and Year 2000 is the single biggest challenge they're facing, so they brought me into it to help them. Although, interestingly enough, when I got into the consultant business in 1978, the very first project I worked on was a Year 2000 project and it was a municipal bond project and they had 20-year bond deals, so they crossed over to the year 2000 back in 1980.

The Year 2000 is a situation where software programs save Year dates in a 2-digit format, so instead of saying 1980, they would say 80. This creates all sorts of problems when we move into the next century. The computer doesn't know, say, if 01 is 1901 or 2001. It miscalculates things, so, for example, if someone was born in 1983 and you wanted to calculate their age in 2000, instead of it being 2000 - 1983, it would calculate it as 1900 - 1983, or if it was an absolute number, it would just calculate it as 83, which would mess up a lot of calculations.

MsgId: *emedia(6)
Date: Mon Apr 7 21:18:26 PDT 1997
From: OMNI_Moderator At: 204.30.67.130

It seems, from reading "Year 2000", that the companies really listen happen to be companies whose clients have long-vested policies with them--like banks and insurance companies. Have you found that most of the companies planning or implementing "Year 2000" projects are in these fields? What other fields should be paying as much attention? Are there any industries at less risk? And, after all this {:-)}, if you can explain what the software crisis is that you and William Ulrich discuss in "Year 2000".
MsgId: *emedia(8)
Date: Mon Apr 7 21:26:24 PDT 1997
From: Ian_Hayes At: 207.172.31.135

How I'd start with this is I'd say that basically all business software can be affected by Year 2000 problems, so therefore, all businesses should pay attention to it. Some industries are more heavily date-dependent than other ones, such as banks and insurance companies, but dates appear in everything, even down to traffic lights and one method of seeing how far the Year 2000 problem goes is to ask your dentist or your hairdresser or your video store to look at their computer system and see if it has two-digit years on the screens.

These fields are pervasive wherever computers are used. The biggest part of the problem is that these computer systems all share data, therefore if they change their date formats, they have to coordinate their changes with each other. As you might imagine, this becomes a huge problem when you're dealing with literally millions of computer systems in everywhere from private industry to government, and these systems exist all around the world.

MsgId: *emedia(10)
Date: Mon Apr 7 21:30:45 PDT 1997
From: OMNI_Moderator At: 204.30.67.130

Why did the early computer programmers decide that only two digits were needed? Are the computer developers or the companies that developed such programs developing new programs to counteract what will happen when 2000 appears--or is this being done by others? Is Microsoft/Macintosh doing anything to develop computer systems to handle this problem?
MsgId: *emedia(11)
Date: Mon Apr 7 21:33:24 PDT 1997
From: Ian_Hayes At: 207.172.31.135

The reason that programmers used only two digits was to save storage space. Disk storage and memory storage was extremely expensive in the early days of computers, and they continued to program in two digits just out of habit. Unfortunately, there is no way to totally automate the "fix" for Year 2000. Some programs have been developed to help portions of the fix, but the vast majority must be done by hand. Microsoft does discuss the Year 2000 problem in its software on its WWW site.
MsgId: *emedia(12)
Date: Mon Apr 7 21:37:33 PDT 1997
From: OMNI_Moderator At: 204.30.67.130

Much of the book is for companies and commercial interests. What about individuals? What can a person expect to have happen to their lives if the company s/he banks/invests/plans with doesn't have a "Year 2000" system installed?
MsgId: *emedia(13)
Date: Mon Apr 7 21:40:24 PDT 1997
From: Ian_Hayes At: 207.172.31.135

Well, individuals should really worry about their banks and insurance companies, but in particular, they should worry about the government because people depend on the government for all sorts of services, from Social Security on down. People will find Year 2000 problems in the strangest places. For example, one programmer tried programming dates on all the VCRs in a department store. The VCRs that cost less than $279 would not accept the Year 2000 dates. Those that cost more, would. The issue is on cheap VCRs, is that people will not be able to program them to advance-tape their shows.
MsgId: *emedia(14)
Date: Mon Apr 7 21:45:14 PDT 1997
From: OMNI_Moderator At: 204.30.67.130

Yeah--VCR programming probably affects more people than anything else. Which also leads me to ask about the new, advanced equipment coming on the market for entertainment--like Web TV and DVD. Are manufacturers of low-cost equipment really going to make the effort to have their software up-to-date, so that people don't have to go out and buy a $2000 TV just to record "Seinfeld"? How many companies have created "Year 2000" systems so far?
MsgId: *emedia(15)
Date: Mon Apr 7 21:47:38 PDT 1997
From: Ian_Hayes At: 207.172.31.135

What I would say is that most of the latest and greatest equipment is Year 2000 compatible. In some cases, though, people just forget, they're so used to using two-digit dates. For example, if you look at pre-printed checks, most of them still have 19's on them. In businesses, many new computer systems, which we would expect to be Year 2000 compliant, are not completely compliant. But from a social standpoint, imagine how hard a Year 2000-type problem will be to fix in the future when even more people have technology.
MsgId: *emedia(16)
Date: Mon Apr 7 21:52:42 PDT 1997
From: OMNI_Moderator At: 204.30.67.130

What are companies doing now to protect themselves against the 2000 dilemma? What can individuals do during 1999 to decrease problems they will encounter in 2000?
MsgId: *emedia(17)
Date: Mon Apr 7 21:56:35 PDT 1997
From: Ian_Hayes At: 207.172.31.135

Individuals should contact their banks, insurance companies, financial institutions like mutual brokers to put pressure on them to address their Year 2000 issues. They should also put pressure on their elected government officials. Most likely, the government will have the greatest effect on people as far as the Year 2000. People who use PCs should upgrade to the latest releases of at least their most important software. Now, for companies, large companies are hiring literally hundreds of programmers and spending millions of dollars trying to fix their computer systems before 2000. There are also armies of lawyers going through contracts and looking for legal means of protecting the company from the Year 2000 failures of others.
MsgId: *emedia(19)
Date: Mon Apr 7 22:00:37 PDT 1997
From: OMNI_Moderator At: 204.30.67.130

What are government agencies doing in order to prepare for the year 2000--besides having "1,000 Days Left" parades? Are governments really planning well for the oncoming millennium? Would private sectors be willing to volunteer to update government computer systems so that those dependent on different aid programs aren't severely hurt by ill planning?
MsgId: *emedia(21)
Date: Mon Apr 7 22:03:45 PDT 1997
From: Ian_Hayes At: 207.172.31.135

Well, some of the government agencies are much further along than others. The Social Security Administration has been working on the problem since 1989. But many government agencies are way behind the 8 ball. There's a couple of congressional committees that are overseeing the Year 2000 problem. Some, like the FAA, are way behind the 8 ball. They're not even planning on testing their systems until late in 1999. And there are a lot of people praying that the IRS fails. As far as volunteers go, I suppose the IRS would have a hard time finding volunteers to help them.
MsgId: *emedia(22)
Date: Mon Apr 7 22:06:19 PDT 1997
From: OMNI_Moderator At: 204.30.67.130

Now, there's something to look forward to in the software crisis! Thanks, Ian, for coming online tonight. Again, Ian S. Hayes, with William M. Ulrich, is the author of "The Year 2000 Software Crisis: Challenge of the Century", which offers solutions about how companies and management can head off the impending software crisis to come when 2000 arrives.
MsgId: *emedia(23)
Date: Mon Apr 7 22:07:13 PDT 1997
From: Ian_Hayes At: 207.172.31.135

Goodnight! Thank you for inviting me to this chat!


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