Prime Time Replay:
Space theorist Robert Zubrin
on Getting to Mars
MsgId: *infinities(7)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:00:38 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
Welcome to Infinities. I'm Sherry Baker, a frequent contributor to OMNI over the years. I'll be your moderator tonight.Is there life on Mars? Whether the answer is yes or no, our guest tonight believes there WILL be life on Mars. The Martians will look very familiar, too. For they will be Earthlings.
Our guest is Robert Zubrin, Ph.D., author of the new book The Case for Mars, and Executive Chairman of the National Space Society. Welcome, Dr. Zubrin.
MsgId: *infinities(12)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:03:10 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
Hi there.
MsgId: *infinities(13)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:03:28 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
It seems like all eyes are on Mars lately. Is there a groundswell, a deep seated desire to pursue the colonization of the Red Planet?
MsgId: *infinities(14)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:04:17 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
I'm finding broad support across the country to the idea of sending human explorers to Mars. Everywhere I go, people say it's time the US space program started taking bold steps again, and Mars is clearly the target. Right now we have a chance to influence events. President Clinton has called a Space Summit for January to discuss how to follow up the discovery of evidence for Life on Mars in the Martian Meteorites. Now is the time to speak up by e-mailing the President. Send e-mail at president@whitehouse.gov
MsgId: *infinities(16)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:06:50 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
Then let's talk about the nuts and bolts issues. You believe, as I understand it, that the very soul of America can be defined by the idea of the Frontier. And that Mars holds the next, best vanguard for a new frontier for humankind. Why is that so important? What does that offer us as a planet, what changes might it bring to Earthlings?
MsgId: *infinities(20)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:10:36 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
Mars offers the potential to give our society an open frontier in the 21st century. It's a new world, one that has on it all the resources needed to support not only life but also a new branch of human civilization. Societies need open frontiers where they can experiment and where the challenge posed by the frontier forces them to come up with new ways of doing things both socially and techonologically, and where the freedom offered by the frontier allows them to try out these new ways of doing things. America was created as a society based on fredom, individualism, and techological progress because of its development in conjunction with an open frontier. Without that, we run the risk of becoming the type of bureaucratic, stagnant, stratified, society that has typified most of human history.
MsgId: *infinities(23)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:16:46 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
How do you answer people who say we should be colonizing Earth's seas, or Antarctica, or the moon instead of Mars?
MsgId: *infinities(25)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:17:33 EST 1996
From: guest At: 204.209.114.35
I agree that Mars is important, but why such emphasis on American involvement? The best way to achieve anything of this magnitude is to collaborate with any and all nations who show an interest in such an endeavour.
MsgId: *infinities(26)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:17:37 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
First: Why Mars instead of the oceans or Antarctica or the moon? Colonizing Antarctica or the oceans is possible in principle, but will not offer the full benefits of an open frontier because with modern means of communication and transportation, any point on Earth is too easy to be reached and controlled by the current ruling institutions. As to the Moon, it won't work because it lacks the resources needed to support life.Re: The issue of American versus international leadership. This is a two-sided issue. On the one hand, the US alone can easily afford to conduct the human exploration and settlement of Mars. And this would allow us to put our stamp on the future of an entire planet. On the other hand, the is something to be said for using pioneering Mars as a way to bring the nations of the world together. I'm open either way.
While we're waiting, I'd like to add this: We're much better prepared today to send humans to Mars than we were to send people to the Moon in 1961 when Kennedy started the moon program.
MsgId: *infinities(27)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:20:09 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
You've said that Mars has what it takes to succeed as a colony. that we can travel there,light, and live off the land -- can you give us some specifics of how colonists could live off of Mars raw materials?
MsgId: *infinities(30)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:22:36 EST 1996
From: guest At: 204.209.114.35
I think the Oceans have more to teach us in the present than any space project could.
MsgId: *infinities(32)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:23:43 EST 1996
From: guest At: 204.209.114.35
How do you propose to fund such a mission?
MsgId: *infinities(34)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:24:12 EST 1996
From: guest At: 207.96.3.86
What can be done at the space summit, given this Administration's total lack of belief in the value of human exploration?
MsgId: *infinities(35)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:25:19 EST 1996
From: guest At: 206.217.144.124
are there any plans to use the newly planned space probes to explore the Sindonia "face"?
MsgId: *infinities(36)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:26:05 EST 1996
From: guest At: 152.163.231.165
(Jeremy Bloom) Could I ask that other "guests" write their names before their questions or comments? The software only identifies us as "guests"...
MsgId: *infinities(37)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:26:10 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
First, how can the mission be funded: If we use a "travel light and live off the land" approach, such as the Mars direct plan outlined in my book, a human to Mars program could be mounted for about $20 billion. Spent over 10 years, that would be 15 percent of NASA's budget, or less than 1 percent of the military budget. It's an amount this country can easily afford.How to convince the administration: We need e-mail sent to the White House on this, to president@whitehouse.gov. Tell him we want a humans-to-Mars initiative, and also that the National Space Society needs to be invited to participate in the Summit.
Specifically, the NSS is proposing that the Clinton administration begin a Phase A definition of a humans-Mars program to be completed by the year 2000. This would only cost several tens of millions of dollars, but would accomplish 25 percent of the schedule required, and would allow NASA to place on the desk of the president elect in November 2000 a detailed plan complete with cost estimates showing how we could have humans on Mars by 2008 --ie, potentially within the new president's second term. We would thus have the homework done to prepare a decision to proceed full steam ahead at that time.
MsgId: *infinities(41)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:29:24 EST 1996
From: guest At: 207.172.126.78
The investment is actually trivial compared to the return. The chance to colonize an entire planet and reap it's rewards. Richard
MsgId: *infinities(42)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:29:56 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
You mean the National Space Society HASN't been invited yet!?
MsgId: *infinities(43)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:30:57 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
Aren't there significant problems with robotics actually being able to reliably find what's under the surface of Mars?
MsgId: *infinities(47)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:34:10 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
No, we haven't been invited --yet. So far, they seem to be confining it to the government. We need to be invited to represent the American public that is concerned with creating a human future in space.Re: robotics. Robots are fine in their way, but they are completely inadequate to conduct the search for life on Mars. Fossil hunting requires agility, the ability to hike long distances over unimproved terrain, the ability to do heavy work and delicate work, and perceptive abilities and intuition that are far beyond the capability of robotic rovers. The little robotic rovers such as the Sojourner rover have wheels six inches in diameter; they cannot climb over a one-foot-high rock; and they can only move a few tens of meters a day, commanded through 20-minute time-delay datalinks from Earth. They do not remotely approach the field exploration capability offered by a human prospector.
MsgId: *infinities(50)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:36:21 EST 1996
From: guest At: 152.163.231.165
(Jeremy Bloom) But isn't that commitment what the National Space Policy backed away from? The current line seems to be, "We can't commit to manned exploration until we know more", and that knowledge will come from the robotic missions of the next few years?
MsgId: *infinities(53)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:41:27 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
Re: The idea of using robots to get more data. The US has already sent eleven robotic probes to Mars, and we plan ten more between now and 2005. That is more than sufficient preparation for human explorers.
MsgId: *infinities(52)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:39:59 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
Robots, I trust, are also not going to make their own fuel for the return home ---something you think Mars explorers might actually be able to do?
MsgId: *infinities(48)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:34:11 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
Can you tell us a little about the nuts and bolts of how colonists could use Mars resources to be self sustaining?
MsgId: *infinities(55)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:43:37 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
Re: Martian resources. We will used Martian resources starting on the very first human mission. This mission will be done by first sending an unmanned Earth Return Vehicle (ERV) to Mars, where it will combine a small amount of hydrogen brought from Earth with carbon dioxide pumped in from the Martian atmosphere to fill itself with methane/oxygen rocket propellant. The crew will then be launched to rendevous with that craft on the Martian surface. Making return propellant on Mars int his way greatly reduces the mass and cost of the Mars mission. Later missions will extract water from permafrost, allowing plants to be grown on Mars and the production of plastics by combining the water with carbon dioxide and nitrogen drawn from the Martian atmosphere. We can also make ceramics, bricks, glasses, metals --everything we need can be with material available on Mars.
MsgId: *infinities(56)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:43:51 EST 1996
From: guest At: 152.163.231.165
But Goldin (at NASA) said that we don't yet have a justification for a manned Mars mission? Do you believe that, at this time, we have sufficient justification? And what would you do to convince Goldin and the Administration?
MsgId: *infinities(62)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:50:16 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
Can you tell us about your plan to reduce the cost of going to Mars with a $20 billion prize established by Congress? What's that about?
MsgId: *infinities(64)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:51:07 EST 1996
From: guest At: 207.96.3.86
(Dave Huntsman) Will you and NSS push to ensure that, included in the next 10 planned smaller/cheaper probe missions, is a demonstration of in situ propellant manufacture, and return to Earth?
MsgId: *infinities(65)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:52:28 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
Re: Goldin. We certainly have justification for a Mars mission. Only human explorers can ferret out the secrets that Mars has to offer. Only human explorers can begin the process of writing a new chapter in the history of human civilization on Mars. The cost is a pitance compared to the value of a new planet for humanity.Re: The prize. The idea would be for Congress to post a $20 billion prize for the first privately organized human-Mars expedition. In addition, around $10 billion more divided into several smaller prizes for various technical accomplishments along the way. It should be possible to do a human-Mars mission on a private basis for much less than this so creating such a prize could start a private space race. The taxpayer would know in advance that cost overruns would be impossible.
To Dave Huntsman: We strongly support demonstrating in situ propellant on robotic probes, most importantly the Mars sample return mission, and we will testify in Congress to that effect.
MsgId: *infinities(57)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:44:16 EST 1996
From: guest At: 204.249.71.66
(Mitchell Burnside Clapp) What are you doing to try to reduce the high cost of space access, upon which all space activities, especially a trip to mars, depends
MsgId: *infinities(63)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:50:28 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
To Mitchell Clapp: I am involved with others in creating a company called Pioneer Rocketplane, which is attempting to develop a reusable launch vehicle.
MsgId: *infinities(70)
Date: Sun Nov 3 22:55:38 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
Can you tell us about the Mars Underground? You've been called the unofficial head of that group.
MsgId: *infinities(73)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:00:11 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
The Mars Underground is an informat network of people working together to get humans to Mars. We hold conferences. If you want to get on the mailing list, send me an e-mail at zubrin@aol.com
MsgId: *infinities(74)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:00:45 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
Do you really believe that a Mars colony will become a reality during the next century?
MsgId: *infinities(76)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:01:28 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
Yes, a Mars colony can become reality in the next century. It's up to us.
MsgId: *infinities(75)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:01:07 EST 1996
From: guest At: 204.249.71.66
(Mitchell Burnside Clapp) Mars Direct is based on using methane and oxygen propellants. Could you discuss some of the alternatives to that choice?
MsgId: *infinities(78)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:02:53 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
Alternatives include methanol/oxygen, ethylene/oxygen, and carbon monoxide/oxygen. All of these propellant combinations can be made on Mars.
MsgId: *infinities(77)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:02:31 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
Thanks for joining us tonight. Our guest has been Robert Zubrin, author of The Case for Mars. Thanks again.
MsgId: *infinities(79)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:03:44 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
I'm willing to stay on another half hour, if there are any more questions.
MsgId: *infinities(80)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:04:27 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
I'm sure there are. Terrific!
MsgId: *infinities(81)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:05:34 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
I'm old enough to remember the first moon landing vividly, and I've been so surprised that we've made such little progress in visiting and colonizing other planets. Yet. I wonder sometimes if people in general have a real desire, a drive to visit other worlds. Is the general public interested in your ideas, or just scientists?
MsgId: *infinities(83)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:07:47 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
I have travelled across the country speaking to public audiences and find enormous public support. Americans believe we should be a pioneering nation. What we have is a failure of leadership in Washington. The public support is there.By the way, you can check out some of my papers on my website. The URL is www.magic.net/mars. To get the full story, read the book. It's available in major bookstores and at www.amazon.com. It's also available right here at the OMNI bookstore, Bookstore of the Omniverse.
MsgId: *infinities(84)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:08:27 EST 1996
From: guest At: 207.96.3.86
(Dave Huntsman) Bob, being head of NSS, starting your own company, and championing the cause of Mars seems like a handful for anyone; perhaps too much so. Is your new company getting enough attention from you? Son-of-Black Horse is a nifty concept that I hope succeeds. But, if Dave Thompson had spent his time doing outstanding charity work, OSC probably wouldn't exist today. Have you spread yourself too thin?
MsgId: *infinities(88)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:11:14 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
I work harder than David Thompson.
MsgId: *infinities(87)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:10:41 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
What do you envision for the terraforming of Mars? Would it become a moist, warm environment?How Earth-like?
MsgId: *infinities(89)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:12:55 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
It could become a place with temperate climate in the equatorial regions of Mars. It would never be completely Earthlike. Gravity will always be 38 percent Earth, and so terrestrial life transplanted to Mars will evolve in new directions and create new levels of diversity.
MsgId: *infinities(90)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:14:51 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
Words like terraforming and frontier (as in Captain Kirk's "Final Frontier") call up images of sci fi. Does the fictional image of space exploration and planetary colonization hurt or help when people -- the general public -- start learning about and questioning whether we should go to Mars?
MsgId: *infinities(92)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:17:17 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
The better science fiction provides a vision that people can understand and attempt to transform. It's reality. I think it's had a very positive effect.
MsgId: *infinities(93)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:20:13 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
A lot of the facts you put together in your book have been recognized a long time --- from the water in Mars' permafrost to the gypsum in the soil. You didn't wake up one morning and suddenly discover these facts. Why have so many scientists seemingly ignored the practical aspects of Mars that make colonization of that planet highly feasible? Why has the idea of going to Mars --making it do-able -- been ignored for so long? Or has it only really be ignored by the politicians?
MsgId: *infinities(99)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:25:28 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
The idea has been developed within the Mars underground for some time. It's now time to make the politicians aware. Once again, your support on this is needed. Please send e-mail to Clinton. This country needs a human to Mars initiative. His address is president@whitehouse.com
MsgId: *infinities(94)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:20:40 EST 1996
From: guest At: 207.96.3.86
(Dave Huntsman) Have you given any thought to complimenting your first book, with a fiction book about Mars? Perhaps with a good fiction co-author? That could go as far as anything else in promoting the idea that we are a pioeering nation; that exploration for it's own sake is part of who we are.
MsgId: *infinities(97)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:23:14 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
I've been developing material for a series of stories starting with the first human mission and moving out through the colonization and terraforming of Mars. I've also developed a screenplay for an adventure movie about the first human mission to Mars. I agree a hundred percent that these types of media must be use to excite and mobilize the public.
MsgId: *infinities(98)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:24:27 EST 1996
From: guest At: 152.163.231.212
(Jeremy Bloom) You're still fairly young, and, as you have pointed out, we have the technology to go to Mars within the next 10-20 years. Do you expect to set foot on Mars yourself one day?
MsgId: *infinities(100)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:26:27 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
I doubt that I myself will go to Mars because I am not an astronaut and am already 44 years old. But if given the chance, I would jump at it.
MsgId: *infinities(101)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:27:39 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
I realize you are an engineer, not a biologist. But do you have any personal theories about the possibility of extinct -- or extant -- life on Mars?
MsgId: *infinities(105)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:30:15 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
I believe that there probably was life on Mars because conditions suitable for life's development existed there for a longer period of time than it took life to appear on Earth. I also think that it is highly probable that life still exists there because life is very tough and can evolve and adapt as conditions change. A sample of Martian life could be an enormous treasure because it might contain genetic material which, if engineered into the genes of terrestrial plants, could allow us to create new species adapted to grow in extremely arid or cold environments. As Thomas Jefferson once said in instructing Merriwether Lewis in bringing back samples of all new plants he discovered on his expedition, a new species of cultivatable plants is one of the greatest treasures an explorer can return.
MsgId: *infinities(108)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:32:49 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
Would you like to leave us with a final thought about the importance of reaching out and exploring new worlds?
MsgId: *infinities(110)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:36:13 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
In conclusion, everything we have today we have because we had ancestors impractical enough to leave their well-settled homes and take great risks to travel across dangerous seas to new lives and new and unknown lands. We owe it to our posterity to be as bold on their behalf as our ancestors were on ours. We owe them a new world.
MsgId: *infinities(111)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:37:56 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
Thanks for joining us tonight on Infinities. Here's hoping we all live long enough to see a colony of Earthlings exploring and thriving on Mars.
MsgId: *infinities(113)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:39:08 EST 1996
From: Robert_Zubrin At: 168.100.204.58
Here, Here
MsgId: *infinities(114)
Date: Sun Nov 3 23:39:13 EST 1996
From: moderator At: 207.69.156.196
Good night, everyone.
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